But the probability of their jumper damaging my clothes is pretty small or causing injury is pretty small. So those animal owners know there is a moderate to high level of chance their jumper will annoy a guest but not a high level that damage will occur in my opinion. Just like in my example, an adult knows there is a high probability of a cup following if set on the corner of a table.
Liability to me is all about probability and expected impact.
Regarding the red bold....I think that annoying a guest is damage in and of itself, and would even posit that it can be "high level" damage to a relationship. We may be talking on separate planes (whether there is legal liability to pay damages or whether there is "damage" in a more general sense).
I think we are.
Every action (or inaction) has an impact and usually some type of risk associated with it.
Example:
If I was to choose to only cut our lawn every 3 weeks, it would become overgrown and "unsightly" compared to our neighbors lawn. I know my choice will most likely annoy my neighbors but that is a risk/liability I am will to accept because I just don't care that much about my neighbors' opinions.
However, if my lawn becomes overgrown, it could hide one of the sprinkler heads near a walking path between our driveway and lawn which can become a tripping hazard, but hey, I know where it is and no one ever really walks across my yard anyway to my driveway but me. Until the mail carrier decides to cut across my lawn, is looking at the mail, stumbles off the walking path, trips, and breaks her wrist. I'll most likely be liable for her medical bills and I would be morally responsible for creating an environment that could cause injury. But the probability that the mail carrier would decide to change her pattern of carrying mail and stumble upon the only sprinkle head that was hidden would have been such a low probability I might not even had thought of this potential risk.
In this case, we know the dog owner has already decided to accept the risk/liability of annoying her friends. How do we know? Because she didn't train her dogs to not jump! She viewed the work to teach them to not jump as much higher cost to her than her fear damaging friendships. It won't be until the cost of having a jumping dog is greater for her that she'll start controlling the behavior.
But she's not yet encountered those consequences. The probability of the dog causing damage that would cause her to be liable financially for damage is low so it is probably not a factor she evaluates when she is sub-consciously analyzing her actions.